A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
